There continues to be guesswork regarding resources available on the moon. Clearly, a leading hot topic is whether or not super-chilly water ice at the lunar south pole is truly ripe for the picking and processing into oxygen, hydrogen and other essentials needed for life support, even rocket fuel. Indeed, exploitable water ice is on NASA’s Artemis agenda, a prospect viewed as enabling a « sustainable » human presence on that bleak and cratered world. Lunar water ice is thought to reside within « cold traps, » permanently-shadowed regions, or PSRs. That elixir for life, along with a bountiful wellspring of other moon resources, could help shore up a self-sustaining space economy. But there’s a need for first things first. What’s urgently needed is a moon prospecting effort to show the « reserve » potential of the lunar south pole ?

The US has identified the Moon as a possible military confrontation zone. The US Space Forces declare that the Moon can become an arena for military confrontation. In the future, it is possible to place guards there. China is considered as a possible opponent. The United States Space Forces say they are preparing to carry out their tasks near the Moon. As NASA implements its plans for the peaceful development of satellites, the military is going to work on security. To do this, they can place their objects in lunar orbits. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibits the deployment of military facilities on the Moon. Therefore, it can mainly be surveillance and tracking satellites. This task for the Space Forces is not as simple as it may seem. All existing systems are designed for use in Earth orbits. Therefore, it will be necessary to adapt them to large distances to the control center and new orbits. Lunar mining and Moon land claims fall into a gray area of international law, but negotiations are underway to avoid conflict and damage to spacecraft. The US Space Forces declare that the Moon can become an arena for military confrontation. In the future, it is possible to place guards there. China is considered as a possible opponent. According to the Space Forces, this department does not have any specific plans for a military presence on the Moon. However, the US Congress has already budgeted two military lunar programs. Their total cost is USD 131 million.

The main opponent on the Moon, the United States considers not Russia, which has recently been actively threatening to start a war in orbit, but China. Because the Celestial Empire has enough resources for viable missions to a natural moon. For a long time, people were sure that armed confrontation in space was in the past. However, a few months before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the threat of using weapons in orbit became a reality again. And the US reacted to this situation.

 It’s been 50 years since humans last visited the Moon, and even robotic missions have been few and far between. But the Earth’s only natural satellite is about to get crowded. At least six countries and a flurry of private companies have publicly announced more than 250 missions to the Moon to occur within the next decade. Many of these missions include plans for permanent lunar bases and are motivated in large part by ambitions to assess and begin utilizing the Moon’s natural resources. In the short term, resources would be used to support lunar missions, but in the long term, the Moon and its resources will be a critical gateway for missions to the broader riches of the solar system. But these lofty ambitions collide with a looming legal question. On Earth, possession and ownership of natural resources are based on territorial sovereignty. Conversely, Article II of the Outer Space Treaty[1] – the 60-year-old agreement that guides human activity in space – forbids nations from claiming territory in space. This limitation includes the Moon, planets and asteroids. So how will space resources be managed? Or will we be following the model of previous centuries, when the first to arrive declared himself the owner of territories that did not belong to him, and which were very often already inhabited by local populations? That was colonialism, on Earth.

The U.S.-led Artemis Program[2] is a coalition of commercial and international partners whose first goal is to return humans to the Moon by 2024. Ultimately, the plan is to establish a long-term lunar base. Russia and China have also announced plans for a joint International Lunar Research Station[3] and invited international collaboration as well. Multiple private missions are also under development by companies like iSpace, Astrobotic and a handful of others. These missions aim to determine what resources are actually available on the Moon, where they are located and how difficult it will be to extract them. Currently, the most precious of these resources is water. Water can be found primarily in the form of ice in shadowed craters in the polar regions. It is necessary for drinking and growing food, but when split into hydrogen and oxygen, it can also be used as fuel to power rockets either returning to Earth or traveling beyond the Moon, with the short-term aim of reaching Mars. Other valuable resources on the Moon include rare Earth metals like neodymium – used in magnets – and helium-3, which can be used to produce energy. Current research suggests that there are only a few small areas of the Moon that contain both water and rare Earth elements. This concentration of resources could pose a problem, as many of the planned missions will likely be headed to prospect the same areas of the Moon.

 As efforts to return to the Moon began ramping up in the 2000s, NASA was so concerned by the destructive potential of lunar dust that in 2011 it issued a set of recommendations to all space-faring entities. The goal was to protect Apollo and other U.S. objects on the lunar surface that are of historical and scientific value. The recommendations implement « exclusion zones »^[4] defined by NASA as « boundary areas into which visiting spacecraft should not enter. » These suggestions are not enforceable against any entity or nation unless they are contracting directly with NASA. The very concept of these zones violates the plain meaning and intent of Article II of the Outer Space Treaty. The article states that no area of space is subject to “national appropriation” by “means of use or occupation.” Creating an exclusion zone around a landing or mining site certainly could be considered an occupation. However, the Outer Space Treaty does offer a potential solution. Article IX of the Outer Space Treaty requires that all activities in space be conducted « with due regard to the corresponding interests of others. » Under this philosophy, many nations are currently working toward collaborative use of space resources. To date, 21 nations have agreed to the Artemis Accords, which use the due regard provision of the Outer Space Treaty to support the development of « notification and coordination » zones, also called « safety zones. » While 21 nations is not an insignificant number, the accords do not at this time include the major space-faring nations of China, Russia or India. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, signed into law by the United Nations, says that the Moon cannot be claimed by any nation

In 2019, China became the first country to land a spacecraft on the far side of the Moon. That same year, China and Russia announced joint plans to reach the South Pole of the Moon by 2026. And some Chinese officials and government documents have expressed intentions to build a permanent, crewed International Lunar Research Station by 2027. There is big difference between China – or any state for that matter – setting up a lunar base and actually « taking over » the Moon. I believe that neither China nor any other nation is likely to take over the Moon in the near future. It is not only illegal, it is also technologically daunting – the costs of such an endeavor would be extremely high, while the potential payoffs would be uncertain. Legally, China or any others countries, cannot take over the Moon because it is against current international space law. The Outer Space Treaty, adopted in 1967 and signed by 134 countries, including China, explicitly states that « Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means » (Article II). Legal scholars have debated the exact meaning of « appropriation », but under a literal interpretation, the treaty indicates that no country can take possession of the Moon and declare it an extension of its national aspirations and prerogatives. If China tried to do this, it would risk international condemnation and a potential international retaliatory response.

While no country can claim ownership of the Moon, Article I of the Outer Space Treaty allows any state to explore and use outer space and celestial bodies. China will not be the only visitor to the South Pole of the Moon in the near future. The U.S.-led Artemis Accords is a group of 20 countries that has plans to return humans to the Moon by 2025, which will include the establishment of a research station on the lunar surface and a supporting space station in orbit called the Gateway with a planned launch in November 2024. Even if no country can legally claim sovereignty over the Moon, it is possible that China, or any other country, would attempt to gradually establish de facto control over strategically important areas through a strategy known as « salami slicing. » This practice involves taking small, incremental steps to achieve a big change: Individually, those steps do not warrant a strong response, but their cumulative effect adds up to significant developments and increased control. China has recently been using this strategy in the South and East China seas. Still, such a strategy takes time and can be addressed.

 With a surface area of nearly 14.6 million square miles (39 million square kilometers) – or almost five times the area of Australia – any control of the Moon would be temporary and localized. More plausibly, China could attempt to secure control of specific lunar areas that are strategically valuable, such as lunar craters with higher concentrations of water ice. Ice on the Moon is important because it will provide water to humans that wouldn’t need to be shipped from Earth. In short, water ice is essential for ensuring the long-term sustainability and survivability of any mission to the Moon or beyond. Securing and enforcing control of strategic lunar areas would require substantial financial investments and long-term efforts. And no country could do this without everyone noticing. China is investing heavily in space. In 2021, it led in number of orbital launches with a total of 55 compared to the U.S.’s 51. China is also in the top three in spacecraft deployment for 2021. China’s state-owned StarNet space company is planning a megaconstellation of 12,992 satellites, and the country has nearly finished building the Tiangong space station. Going to the Moon is expensive; « taking over » the Moon would be much more so. China’s space budget – an estimated US$13 billion in 2020, and $12B on its space program in 2022, a figure far less than the $55M for NASA and+ Space Force. – is only around half that of NASA’s. Both the U.S. and China increased their space budgets in 2020, the U.S. by 5.6% and China by 17.1% compared to the previous year. But even with the increased spending, China does not seem to be investing the money needed to carry out the expensive, daring and uncertain mission of « taking over » the Moon. If China assumes control over some part of the moon, it would be a risky, expensive and extremely provocative action. China would risk further tarnishing its international image by breaking international law, and it may invite retaliation. All this for uncertain payoffs that remain to be determined.

In fact, the PLA changed its approach to space operations in 2013, focusing on military competition and controlled escalation to achieve political objectives. The shift toward higher risk tolerance in space is significantly influenced by the PLA’s view of the US as a declining power likely to resort to militarization. And Chinese President Xi Jinping’s influence has shaped the PLA’s increasing risk tolerance in space. In fact, the real challenge in space is not just about reaching a specific milestone, like planting flags or collecting rocks; it is about establishing a sustainable, resilient presence in an incredibly challenging environment.

 [1] Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly 2222 (XXI). Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/gares/ARES_21_2222E.pdf

[2] Artemis – With NASA’s Artemis campaign, we are exploring the Moon for scientific discovery, technology advancement, and to learn how to live and work on another world as we prepare for human missions to Mars. We will collaborate with commercial and international partners and establish the first long-term presence on the Moon. NASA will land the first woman and first person of color on the Moon, using innovative technologies to explore more of the lunar surface than ever before. https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/artemis/

[3] China National Space Administration – « China and Russia sign a Memorandum of Understanding Regarding Cooperation for the Construction of the International Lunar Research Station. » https://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c6811380/content.html

[4] NASA’s Recommendations to Space-Faring Entities: How to Protect and Preserve the Historic and Scientific Value of U.S. Government Lunar Artifacts Release: July 20, 2011. https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/617743main_nasa-usg_lunar_historic_sites_reva-508.pdf?emrc=44e0c8