If a war broke out between the United States and China, the clash between two of the world’s most powerful militaries would be horrific. And the United States could very well lose. That’s a concern among current and former defense officials and military analysts, in war games simulating great-power conflict in which the United States fights Russia and China, the United States will lose this war. Beijing considers Taiwan a Chinese province and China’s leaders have become increasingly strident about unifying the island with the mainland, therefore a military invasion is not out of the question. Some U.S military leaders forewarned that a Taiwan invasion would take place by 2027, the year the Chinese People’s Liberation Army celebrates its centenary and China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping comes to the end of his third term. Chinese experts have reportedly advised Xi Jinping to keep the new Trump administration’s attention riveted on Ukraine rather than Taiwan, which could be taken between 2025 and 2027. Beijing seems to see the world as a huge chessboard.
In this context, it is interesting to read an article published on the English-language website Japan Forward[1] by exiled Chinese dissident Jennifer Zeng. She notes that the idea of North Korean military involvement in Russia was reportedly recommended to Xi Jinping in September 2024 by a Chinese military think-tank with input from military and foreign ministry experts. The report, summarized by former Peking University professor Yuan Hongbing, whose analysis has been translated into English by Jennifer Zeng, discusses the response China should make to Donald Trump’s return to the White House.The report urges the acceleration of military, economic, and political readiness for potential operations against Taiwan. It aims to utilize the strategic window from 2025 to 2027, which is considered optimal for « addressing the Taiwan issue. » Otherwise, « resolving the Taiwan issue » would become extremely disadvantageous.
The general thesis of the report is that the second Trump presidency could be unfavorable to China, particularly with regard to its plans towards Taiwan. According to the report, Trump and the Republicans could adopt a very different strategy to that of Joe Biden, probably starting by pressuring Ukraine to trade territory for peace with Russia. Such a peace could ease relations between Russia and the United States, freeing up American military resources in Europe, but also in the Middle East, where a Russian-American détente would weaken Iran’s influence. It would also enable the United States to focus on the Indo-Pacific region, making it more difficult for China to achieve its objectives not only in Taiwan, but also in the South China Sea. Taiwan is a potential flashpoint in a new Cold War, this time between the United States, China and Russia.
Read more on March 1st, 2025.
[1] « China’s CCP Makes Strategic Preparations for a Trump Victory » By Jennifer Zeng. Published October 30, 2024. « Exclusive: A recent Chinese military report delivers 3 strategic recommendations to Xi Jinping and the CCP on the prospect of Donald Trump’s US election win. » https://japan-forward.com/exclusive-china-ccp-prepares-for-a-trump-victory/